Francis Mureithi

4 August 2010

Nairobi — TODAY's referendum will change the country's political landscape and lead to major realignments ahead of the 2012 general election, Interim Independent Electoral Commission chairman Ahmed Issack Hassan predicted yesterday.

Promising to release the referendum results in "record time" through the use of the Electronic Results Transmission System, Issack said the referendum was a defining moment in Kenya's history.

"It will herald a new chapter in our nation's rich history," Issack said at the Bomas of Kenya which is the nerve centre of today's poll.

He asked Kenyans to remain united even after the results are announced and expressed optimism that Kenyans had learnt their lesson and would not allow political differences to convulse the country into violence.

"Unlike what happened in 2005, this time round were are different.

Kenyans have learnt a lesson. We have gone to the brink, to the precipice, almost to a civil war and I don't think we will allow ourselves as a country to go back there again. We have learnt our lessons and we want to prove to ourselves and to the world that we can conduct a peaceful referendum, free and fair, that we will accept the results and move forward," said the IIEC boss.

Similar appeals were made by President Kibaki when he gave his televised address to the nation at 4 pm yesterday. He appealed to Kenyans to vote in large numbers.

"Let us do so peacefully. Let us also embrace one another as brothers and sisters even after the referendum. Let us all play our role in creating a great Kenyan nation, at peace with itself and respected among the greater family of nations," said Kibaki.

He and Prime Minister Raila Odinga have been leading the Yes campaigns for the proposed constitution while Higher Education minister William Ruto, retired President Moi and religious leaders have been pushing for its rejection.

Yesterday Moi denied that he was out to defeat anyone politically.

"I am no longer in competitive politics and neither am l seeking to uplift anyone politically," he said in a statement..

A total of 12,470,433 Kenyans, including 5,605 prisoners, will be eligible to cast their votes today when the polling stations open at 6 am and close at 5pm. There are 27,689 polling stations countrywide.

Some small polling stations will be able to relay their results to both the constituency tallying centres and the IIEC national centre at the Bomas of Kenya very soon after voting ends.

Issack said voting will end at 5pm and counting will start immediately.

Anyone still waiting in the queue will be allowed to vote but access into the polling stations will be blocked after 5pm.

He explained that both old and new generation national identification cards will be used in addition to the voter cards issued by the IIEC.

Hassan said the IIEC had chosen Bomas of Kenya as the venue of the national tallying centre to dissociate it from its predecessor's chaotic management of the December 2007 election results. The now defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya used the Kenyatta International Conference Centre as its national tallying centre in December 2007.

The Bomas of Kenya was established by government in 1971 to preserve, maintain and promote the country's diverse cultural values and to act as a tourist attraction. It was the base for the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission in 2004 which produced the Bomas Draft. A subsitute draft prepared by Attorney General Amos Wako was rejected in the 2005 referendum.

"It is a symbolic measure for us. Maybe we will conclude this journey this time round," Issack said.

The IIEC boss added it was easy to manage security at Bomas of Kenya compared to KICC as it was more secluded.

Yesterday Police Commissioner Mathew Iteere visited Bomas and directed his officers to deal sternly with anyone trying to cause chaos.

Analysts have predicted that the fortunes of key political players depend on the outcome of the poll today.

Raila needs a big win to raise his chances as a presidential candidate in 2012.

Conversely Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka may suffer if Ukambani has a No victory or a weak Yes win.

Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua has managed to cut a niche for herself in the national scene by addressing numerous Yes rallies. Deputy Premier Uhuru Kenyatta has boosted his credibility by his lively campaign for the Yes side.

On the flip-side, Information minister Samuel Poghisio may take a nosedive if Kenyans adopt the proposed constitution in large numbers.

In his campaign William Ruto has proved that he is a dynamic leader but he needs a big No victory in Rift Valley if he is to be a frontrunner in 2012.

A No win would undoubtedly lead to new alliances between Ruto and Yes team members such as Kalonzo and Uhuru.

In the November 2005 referendum the government side (Banana) was defeated by the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya which later split with Raila establishing ODM and Kalonzo retaining ODM-K. Both ran for the presidency in 2007.

After the Banana defeat, Kibaki sacked the entire cabinet and reconstituted it three weeks later leaving out ministers who had opposed the proposed constitution.

Yesterday Issack said some political parties might continue to use the Red and Green colours selected to symbolise the No and Yes votes.

"Your guess is as good as mine whether the Greens and the Reds can become political movements," said Issack.