Mike Mwaniki

1 September 2010

Nairobi — Kenya is likely to experience poor rainfall in the October-December short rains season.

This, says a United Nations report, will result in poor crop harvest in most areas.

The rains will be affected by the La Nina weather phenomenon which is expected during the period, the Kenya Food Security Outlook Update predicts.

"Initial forecasts suggest the severity of the La Nina may depend on the change, in coming weeks and months, in Indian Ocean Sea Surface temperatures which are currently above normal...

"Sustained high temperatures could moderate the severity of the phenomenon and its likely impacts," the report says.

The forecast spells doom to the estimated 4.1 million people living in highly populated areas in urban households currently facing various levels of food insecurity.

At the same time, the predication is likely to adversely affect the 1.18 million pastoralists and 420,000 small-scale farmers in southeastern and coastal lowlands who are currently in need of assistance.

Cases of malnutrition are likely to increase especially among children in pastoral areas in north-eastern districts.

"However, the national long rains output, expected to be concluded in January, is anticipated to be about 2.62 million tonnes, which is about 10 per cent higher than the five-year average."

Delay drying of grain

Although harvesting has started in Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Central provinces, the report adds, an estimated 50 per cent of the harvest will be derived from the "grain basket" Rift Valley highlands beginning next month.

"However, the occurrence of La Nina in this area could result in heavier-than-usual rains impeding harvesting or delay drying of the harvested grain...

"If that happens, heightened pre- and post- harvest losses or contamination of harvested output could severely affect the initial optimistic long rains output prospects," the report warns.

The report accuses the government of failing to "mop up" contaminated maize in south-eastern and coastal lowland areas.

"The government's plan to mop up the infected grain has not happened, promoting unrestricted trade and consumption of possibly infected maize.

"Although limited cases of aflatoxin-related deaths and ailments have been reported, the long-term impacts of consumption of the maize is a cause for great concern," the outlook says.

It warns the region is likely to experience food shortages following the loss of up to 30 per cent of the harvest.

The situation could trigger migration to coastal areas and neighbouring high potential farmlands in search of employment. It could also lead to an upsurge in charcoal burning.