Grain production in the North Rift could plummet due to irregular rains that have caused uneven germination and withering of crops.

The erratic weather portends serious losses for farmers, especially those who had leased land for cultivation. Even those who own farms and invested heavily in field preparation, planting and inputs are set to earn dismally low returns.

This brings the threat of hunger closer home because the harvest from the current season was expected to help replenish food reserves till August. The North Rift is considered to be Kenya's food basket.

"The erratic rains have caused withering of some of the crops already in the field while others have failed to sprout," says Mrs Mary Chepkosgei of Kesses Division in Uasin Gishu District.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has already named Kenya among 33 nations threatened by famine and would require assistance in relief food.

"We are likely to experience a low harvest this season," added Mr Isaac Kibogy, a farmer at Chepkanga in the same district. The Uasin Gishu district is projected to experience a shortage of 600,000 bags of maize this season.

The production is expected to decline from 4.3 million harvested last season to 3.7 million according to the area agricultural officer, Mrs Grace Kirui.

Besides erratic rains, a reduction in cultivation area from 86,028 hectares last season to 79,017 this season due to the displacement of some farmers during the post-election violence will contribute to the lower harvest, she said.

The district has been recording increased maize production in recent years, but high prices of farm inputs and a shift by farmers to the horticultural sector has seen farmers reducing field sizes.

The increased maize production had been achieved on the back of a shift of most farmers from wheat to maize. This came as a result of the attractive prices offered by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) and private millers.

The North Rift region last year produced 12 million bags of maize against the country's strategic grain reserve of four million bags. The region also produced 3.7 million bags of wheat against the national consumption of eight million bags.

Maize and wheat farmers in the region were expected to increase the acreage under cultivation for the two crops following the disbursement of Sh482 million by the Government.

This was done through the Agricultural Finance Corporation (ADC) to boost agricultural productivity.

Access to certified seeds at affordable prices and the revival of agricultural mechanization through tractor hire services has boosted the efforts.

The revitalization of the Kenya Seed Company and ADC was also aimed at facilitating an increase in acreage.

The projected crop failure might affect the economic status of most North Rift residents to whom farming is the main source of income.

The farmers now want the Government to re-introduce Guaranteed Minimum Return (GMR) policy that was meant to protect farmers and ensure they were entitled to pay in case of crop failure. The policy was scrapped by the Government several years ago.

The liberalization of the economy in 1996 also introduced elements of uncertainty, with prices surging in times of deficits and falling during surpluses.

The farmers also want the government to increase the price of cereals delivered to the National Cereals and Produce Board.

A private initiative recently introduced a warehousing receipt system for cereal deliveries in a bid to stabilise grain prices in the region.