New data available from the Small Arms Survey suggests that while there is a security vacuum on both sides of the Sudan-Kenya border, insecurity and lawlessness are even more pronounced in Turkana North than in Eastern Equatoria, South Sudan, which is recovering from a 21-year civil war.

The Small Arms Survey conducted a household survey in border regions in mid-2007 as part of the Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project. The purpose of the survey was to gather data on levels of firearm-related victimization, and to explore actual and perceived security threats as well attitudes towards disarmament. It found that insecurity, mostly related to cattle rustling, was common and that fear of disarmament was widespread.

Key survey findings include the following:

* Across the entire survey sample in Eastern Equatoria and Turkana North District, respondents' primary concern was a lack of security for their households and/or animals.

* Sixty per cent of respondents had witnessed a cattle-rustling event; small arms were used in 97 per cent of reported cases.

* Almost 60 per cent of respondents said they were not satisfied with the level of security in their village. A third reported feeling 'quite to very

unsafe' when walking alone to the market during daylight hours.

* Almost 80 per cent of respondents said that small arms made them feel safer.

* Forty per cent of Eastern Equatoria respondents said safety in their village had decreased since the North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed in 2005.

* Eighty per cent of respondents in Turkana North said security in their village was not good enough; almost 70 per cent felt 'quite to very unsafe' walking alone to the market during daylight hours.

* Almost 80 per cent of all most recently witnessed violent events in Turkana North involved a small arm.

While the data gathered are not comprehensive, they do give a clear indication of the degree to which firearms (mis)use is endemic among pastoralist communities in the region. The report suggests that while the 'post-conflict' environment in South Sudan is responsible for the security vacuum, structural factors such as poverty and long-term government neglect have led to even higher level of lawlessness across the border in Turkana North.

The survey findings also reveal attitudes towards disarmament that are especially striking. In Turkana North, 94 per cent of respondents said any future disarmament would decrease security in their household.

In Eastern Equatoria, opinions about disarmament were divided: more than 40 per cent said it would decrease insecurity while the same number said it would increase security. This is important in light of a recent presidential decree issued in South Sudan to disarm all southern communities between June and December 2008, if necessary by using force.

In Eastern Equatoria, ad hoc disarmament has already begun as a result of the presidential decree. Sudan People¹s Liberation Army (SPLA) soldiers were involved in a 'peace enforcement operation' or forcible disarmament of two warring villages, Iloli and Oguruny, in Torit County, on 4 June 2008. Eight SPLA and 11 civilians were reportedly killed during the operation, and several more civilians after it. The SPLA then burned both villages to the ground in retaliation for the killings, forcing some 4,300 people to flee. Further disarmament is imminent and, in the absence of a holistic, coordinated, regional approach with buy-in from targeted communities, is likely to meet violent resistance.

Research undertaken by the Small Arms Survey in Uganda, Kenya and Sudan shows that ad hoc, forcible disarmament campaigns often result in increased insecurity. Government-led initiatives are often viewed as being politically motivated, while the disarmed are made vulnerable to attack from neighbouring communities. Rearmament is commonplace. One of the conclusions of the HSBA Working Paper is that while government attempts to contain the firearm problem may be well-meaning, top-down, militaristic approaches are often short-sighted and rarely serve the interests of the communities being targeted.

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