The countdown to the PNU grassroots elections next month was marked by a curious spat last week between Security minister George Saitoti and his Justice colleague Martha Karua.

The latter was reacting to the announcement of PNU elections when she warned those on the Narc-Kenya roll against participating.

Prof Saitoti's rejoinder was that the era of threats ended long ago and, in any case, he made it clear that he was not the sort to be threatened.

All indications are that Prof Saitoti is revving up for the elections, and it is assumed he will be going for one of the very high positions, possibly one of the deputy chairmen.

(So far, the only position party MPs agreed on is that of party leader-cum-chairman, which they gave to President Kibaki.)

Prof Saitoti is also the designated PNU "co-ordinator" for Rift Valley Province.

Declared their interest

The other person with a major interest in the developments is Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, who had been selected to co-ordinate PNU campaigns in Central Province. He turned this position down and Kinangop MP David Ngugi was instead appointed.

Last week, high-ranking members of PNU were anxious to downplay any suggestion of a confrontation between Mr Kenyatta and Prof Saitoti.

That notwithstanding, Mt Kenya region MPs held a closed-door session at Nairobi's Panafric Hotel on what was understood to be matters of the coming PNU elections.

Mr Kenyatta has the chairmanship of Kanu, which raises the question of how far his involvement can go in strictly PNU affairs for as long as he remains in that position (Kanu, however, is a corporate member).

Ms Karua the other day forcefully took charge of Narc-Kenya, and promptly announced she would take it on an independent path.

That rules her out of the PNU electioneering, even as questions emerge on if her outfit will get anywhere when the rest of the Mt Kenya brigade, led by the President himself, is rooting for PNU's revitalisation.

In a major setback for the Gichugu lady, PNU Nairobi MPs, who included her erstwhile comrade Mr Dick Wathika of Makadara, announced they were joining PNU fully from Narc-Kenya.

Another MP bluntly put it that the eventual aim of the PNU activities was to "suffocate" her, politically speaking.

Prof Saitoti is the only one of the trio without a party he directly controls, and this is one of the main reasons it is widely anticipated he will pull out all the stops to take charge of PNU.

Though nominally the party leader, Mr Kibaki is not known to be particularly keen on party matters. Besides, he will be out of the fray in 2012.

Essentially, the PNU elections are serious in that they amount in showing the pecking order of who is who in the Kibaki side of the government coalition.

The interest Prof Saitoti has taken in PNU plans is so keen that he is one of three figures who are independently credited with being behind the preparations of the PNU national exercise. That is a bit remarkable, considering this is somebody who likes to be in the background.

The other two are Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi and government Chief Whip George Thuo.

Mr Thuo is known to be close to Mr Kenyatta, while Mr Murungi is a generally neutral player whose first loyalty is to the President.

Prof Saitoti and Mr Kenyatta share one thing in common: a command of serious resources which nobody else in the PNU orbit can match.

But at the same time they cannot be more different. Prof Saitoti is acknowledged as a major operator with a national network of handymen.

He also happens to be in charge of one of the most powerful dockets of State with a countrywide presence - the provincial administration.

Polished rapport

Mr Kenyatta has nothing to match that, except a polished rapport with the grassroots, which admittedly is one area the aloof Prof Saitoti is known to be weak in.

An MP from Nakuru asked, "Does Saitoti) have the ability to work with other people? Uhuru is not very accessible himself, but there is a rapport he has with people."

The other thing Prof Saitoti and Mr Kenyatta have in common is a dread of ODM, something they perceive Ms Karua to be naive to.

Prof Saitoti's early association with Mr Kibaki's plans for PNU is understood to have particularly annoyed Ms Karua during one meeting in July chaired by the President.

As for Mr Kenyatta, who she apparently imagines is Kibaki's designated successor, it is what she considers to be his air of entitlement that she finds so annoying.

Two significant voices reinforced the view that the collective PNU inclination is not to infuriate Ms Karua more than necessary.

One is Mr Thuo, the Juja MP, who despite fundamental differences with her approach says fighting her is "counter-productive".

The other is a top PNU official at the party secretariat who wished not to be named. "Martha will see the sense of a unified front. She has to. We will give her a chance to see that this is the only way."

That notwithstanding, there has been heavy pressure from certain interested quarters in PNU that Ms Karua be moved from Justice, the excuse being that as a presidential contender she is an interested party in the planned constitutional review.

An MP from Central Kenya in a high position in the official hierarchy ventured the claim that the President had become "disappointed" with Ms Karua because of her political direction.

A cabinet reshuffle is imminent, and it is not a question of speculation. Finance and Roads ministries are vacant, and the only thing holding the reshuffle back is the conclusion of the Cockar Commission and the by-elections in Sotik and Bomet.

Peculiar logic

Party elections tend to have their own peculiar logic, and the PNU show is unlikely to be any different.

A level playing field is not to be expected. Usually, it is the candidate with money who can mobilise a national machine who wins in the end.

Operationally, PNU has teething problems. There are outstanding debts from the 2007 election.

Some of the same grassroots people the party plans to co-opt for its elections are the same people who have not been paid for their 2007 legwork for the party.

A great advantage Prof Saitoti has over Mr Kenyatta is that he has no party impediments, unlike the latter who has Kanu and thus has to balance his involvement in PNU with that reality.

One of the deputy prime minister's close allies insists Mr Kenyatta will not dump Kanu, which would inevitably open hostilities with former President Daniel arap Moi.

Others say it is only a matter of time before the Gatundu MP makes a radical decision, considering what is at stake. One of his allies is adamant that this dilemma is one Mr Kenyatta has to resolve before it is too late.

For two weeks now, Mr Kenyatta has been frequenting IDP camps in the Rift Valley. Word is that he is on an independent assessment mission authorised by the President himself.

During one such trip, Mr Kenyatta complained that despite what officials were telling Mr Kibaki, the resettlement was not going well.

On Friday afternoon, Prof Saitoti suddenly sent an alert to the media that the following day he would also be visiting IDP camps in Burnt Forest.

Despite her earlier gallant advocacy of IDP issues, Ms Karua has yet to announce a similar tour.